Trade Prediction Markets
0This skill allows users to trade YES/NO tokens on Polymarket prediction markets, focusing on real-world events. It's designed for traders interested in engaging with crypto-related predictions.
100Updated 2mo ago
Trading
Quick InstallView Source
$ npx skills add https://github.com/robonet-tech/skills --skill trade-prediction-marketsOverview
About This Skill
Trade Prediction Markets is a specialized skill for building and testing strategies on Polymarket, a platform for YES/NO token trading on real-world events across politics, economics, sports, and crypto. The skill provides tools to browse available events, analyze market data, create prediction strategies, and backtest performance on historical data before committing capital. Users can design custom trading logic for binary outcome predictions and validate strategy performance with low-cost simulations ($0.001 per backtest). This workflow is self-contained within the prediction market domain and ideal for traders interested in event-driven trading without deploying to traditional crypto exchanges.
How to Use
Install via `$ npx skills add https://github.com/robonet-tech/skills --skill trade-prediction-markets`
Use Cases
Browse cryptocurrency prediction markets
Create prediction market strategies
Backtest trading strategies on Polymarket
Tags
Setup & Installation
Quick Install
Terminal
$ npx skills add https://github.com/robonet-tech/skills --skill trade-prediction-marketsAlternative Install (Git Clone)
git clone https://github.com/robonet-tech/skillsRequirements
- Claude Code or compatible AI agent
Quick Start Guide
1
Install the Skill
Copy the install command above and run it in your terminal.
2
Open Your AI Agent
Launch Claude Code, Cursor, or your preferred AI coding agent.
3
Try It Out
Use the prompt template or examples below to test the skill.
4
Customize
Adapt the skill to your specific use case and workflow.
Usage Examples
Prompt Template
I want to trade YES/NO tokens on Polymarket for the upcoming [EVENT, e.g., '2024 US Presidential Election']. Analyze the current market odds, liquidity, and trends for the [SPECIFIC OUTCOME, e.g., 'Biden wins']. Provide a risk assessment, potential ROI, and a recommended strategy (e.g., buy YES/NO tokens or hedge with a spread bet). Include historical data for similar events if available. Current budget: $[BUDGET AMOUNT].
Example Output
### Polymarket Trade Analysis: 2024 US Presidential Election - Biden Wins **Current Market Data (as of Oct 15, 2024):** - Biden Wins (YES): 58% ($0.58 per token) - Biden Loses (NO): 42% ($0.42 per token) - Total Liquidity: $2.1M - 30-Day Volume: $1.8M **Historical Context:** - In 2020, Biden’s YES tokens traded at 55% 30 days before election day. - Current odds are +3% vs. 2020 baseline, suggesting slight overconfidence. **Risk Assessment:** - **High:** Polling volatility, debate performance, or late-breaking news could swing odds. - **Medium:** Liquidity is strong, but slippage possible for >$50K positions. - **Low:** Token redemption is guaranteed post-event (no oracle risk). **Recommended Strategy:** - **Entry:** Buy 1,000 NO tokens at $0.42 ($420 total). - Rationale: Current odds are inflated; Biden’s lead may narrow closer to election day. - Stop-loss: Sell if YES tokens rise above 65%. - **Hedge:** Sell 500 YES tokens at $0.58 ($290) to offset downside risk. **Potential ROI:** - If Biden loses: +$160 profit (NO tokens redeem at $1.00). - If Biden wins: -$260 max loss (hedged). **Next Steps:** 1. Monitor [Polymarket’s Biden Wins market](https://polymarket.com/event/12345) for volume spikes. 2. Set price alerts for YES tokens at 60% and 65%. 3. Reassess strategy if new polling data emerges (e.g., third-party debate performance).
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