ansoff-matrix

--- name: ansoff-matrix argument-hint: "[company or product line, its current core, and the growth outcome sought]" description: "Map evidence-backed growth options across the Ansoff Matrix with risk-rated sequencing. Use when the question is where the next tranche of growth comes from, and at what risk." intent: >- A researched Ansoff Matrix, not a brainstorm grid: market penetration, market development, product development, and diversification, each quadrant populated with candidate moves backed by documented signals, risk ratings that respect the matrix's risk gradient, and a recommended sequence with the assumption that breaks it. type: workflow theme: market-intelligence best_for: - "Answering 'where does the next tranche of growth come from?' with evidence per option" - "Forcing diversification proposals to carry the evidence burden their risk demands" - "Sequencing growth moves so early wins fund the riskier bets" scenarios: - "Growth planning for next year — map our options across the Ansoff quadrants with evidence" - "The board wants a diversification story; pressure-test it against what the signals actually support" estimated_time: "25-40 min per run" --- # Ansoff Matrix (Evidence-Backed) ## Purpose Map a company's growth options across the Ansoff Matrix with evidence per quadrant: **use or gather evidence → four quadrants with signals → risk-rated sequence → next-step options.** The four quadrants — market penetration, market development, product development, diversification — organize one question: *where does the next tranche of growth come from, and at what risk?* This is a research instrument, not wishful whiteboarding: every candidate move must answer "what documented signal says this demand exists?" And the close is a sequence, because growth options compound — penetration funds development, and diversification bets the funding. ## Input **Works best with:** the company or product line seeking growth, its **current core** (who is served, with what, at what scale — the matrix's axes are defined relative to it), and the growth outcome and horizon on the table. **Also useful:** constraints (capital, capability, risk appetite), and any research in session — a landscape scan, five-forces read, or [`company-intel`](../company-intel/SKILL.md) output lets the matrix organize evidence instead of gathering it. Input supplied inline with the invocation — text after the skill name, a pasted context dump, or an appended `ARGUMENTS:` line — counts as answers already given. Use it against the question budget; don't re-ask. **Arriving empty-handed? That works too.** The skill opens with at most 3 questions (core, outcome and horizon, constraints) and proceeds on labeled assumptions if they go unanswered. **Example invocation:** `Ansoff growth options for our field-service product line — core: dispatch software for mid-market HVAC firms, US. Outcome: +40% ARR in 24 months. Constraint: no acquisitions.` ## Key Concepts - **Governing protocol:** honors the [`autonomous-investigation`](../autonomous-investigation/SKILL.md) contract — question budget of 3, search-plan gate, Fact/Inference/Assumption labels, Just Enough Mode (2-3 moves per quadrant), stable schema, 4-option Final Step. - **The framework (Ansoff, 1957):** growth options plotted on two axes — existing vs. new *products*, existing vs. new *markets*. Penetration (existing/existing) is the lowest-risk quadrant; diversification (new/new) the highest, because it abandons both anchors of proven demand at once. - **The risk gradient is law.** Penetration < market development ≈ product development < diversification. A diversification move rated "low risk" needs extraordinary evidence — and the gradient teaches why diversification proposals deserve the heaviest evidence burden and usually arrive with the lightest. - **Signals, not wishes.** Candidate moves come from documented signals: underserved-segment data, expressed demand ([`voice-of-customer-miner`](../voice-of-customer-miner/SKILL.md) themes), competitor precedent, capability evidence. An empty diversification quadrant is an acceptable answer; an invented one is not. - **Coaching vs. investigation — same map, different jobs:** [`organic-growth-advisor`](../organic-growth-advisor/SKILL.md) is the Interactive sibling that *diagnoses your growth constraint* through questions (its Growth Path Matrix shares Ansoff's axes); this skill *researches the evidence* for each quadrant's options. Diagnose there, evidence here — they pair deliberately. - **When NOT to use:** feature-level prioritization (this is portfolio altitude — use [`feature-investment-advisor`](../feature-investment-advisor/SKILL.md) for a single build decision); no growth mandate or capacity — an options map without an owner is a poster. - **Do-not-invent list:** market sizes, adoption data, competitor results, demand claims. Where sizing matters, flag it for [`tam-sam-som-calculator`](../tam-sam-som-calculator/SKILL.md) rather than guessing. ## Application 1. **Check session for existing evidence** (landscape scan, five forces, company intel, VoC). Present → the matrix organizes it; search only gaps. 2. **Credit inline context**, then ask only the unanswered questions (max 3): 1. Which company or product line, and what is its current core? 2. What growth outcome and horizon is on the table? 3. Any constraints — capital, capability, risk appetite? 3. **If researching fresh, show the 3-bullet search plan** — what you'll search per quadrant (segment data, expressed demand, competitor precedents, capability signals), source types, fact/inference separation. Continue unless revised. 4. **Populate the quadrants and emit the schema below exactly.** ### Output schema (do not reorder) ~~~markdown # Ansoff Growth Options: [Company / Product Line] **As-of date:** | **Current core:** | **Growth outcome sought:** ## 1. Market Penetration (existing product, existing market — lowest risk) - **[Candidate move]** — signal: [evidence, URL, label] — risk: [low/med/high, why] - [2-3 moves] ## 2. Market Development (existing product, new market) - **[Candidate move: segment, geography, or channel]** — signal: [evidence of underserved demand, URL, label] — risk: [rating, why] - [2-3 moves] ## 3. Product Development (new product, existing market) - **[Candidate move]** — signal: [expressed demand, VoC theme, competitor precedent, URL, label] — risk: [rating, why] - [2-3 moves] ## 4. Diversification (new product, new market — highest risk) - **[Candidate move]** — signal: [the extraordinary evidence this quadrant requires, URL, label] — risk: [rating, why] - [1-2 moves; an empty quadrant is an acceptable answer] ## 5. Recommended Sequence (the "so what") - **First:** [move] — because [evidence strength + funding logic] - **Then:** [move] — funded/de-risked by the first - **Not yet:** [the tempting move and why the evidence says wait] - **The assumption that breaks this sequence:** [one line] ### Assumptions to Validate - [Assumption 1] / [Assumption 2] / [Assumption 3] ~~~ A copy/paste fill-in version of this schema, with quality checks, lives in [`template.md`](template.md). ### Final Step (offer exactly 4 options) 1. Size the top move with TAM/SAM/SOM ([`tam-sam-som-calculator`](../tam-sam-som-calculator/SKILL.md)) (Recommended) 2. Pressure-test the sequence with a premortem 3. Deep-dive the diversification quadrant's evidence 4. Convert the first move into an opportunity solution tree ([`opportunity-solution-tree`](../opportunity-solution-tree/SKILL.md)) Accept `1`, `2`, `3`, `4`, `1 and 2`, `Verbose Mode`, or a custom path. ## Examples **A quadrant entry earning its place (fictional):** > ## 2. Market Development > - **Adjacent trade: plumbing contractors, same size band** — signal: plumbing firms appear > unprompted in 14% of our category's review-site mentions asking "does this work for plumbing?" — > **Fact** ([review threads, URLs]); the two incumbents serving plumbing both gate scheduling > behind enterprise tiers — **Fact** ([pricing pages]) — risk: **medium** — demand signal is real > but second-hand; sales motion transfers, integrations don't fully. **The sequence close doing its job:** > - **First:** win-back campaign into the churned-but-reachable base (penetration) — strongest > evidence, funds everything else, 1-quarter payback > - **Then:** plumbing-contractor entry (market development) — de-risked by the penetration win's > cash and case studies > - **Not yet:** the IoT hardware bundle (diversification) — one analyst mention and founder > enthusiasm is not extraordinary evidence > - **The assumption that breaks this sequence:** churned customers left for fixable reasons; if > win-loss shows they left the *category*, penetration is a dead first move and development leads. See [`examples/sample.md`](examples/sample.md) for a complete worked matrix (fictional FSM-software market) with an honestly empty diversification quadrant and a sequence whose breaking assumption is named. [`examples/sample-industrial.md`](examples/sample-industrial.md) shows the opposite lesson: a populated diversification quadrant whose entry fails the evidence bar in writing. ## Common Pitfalls - **The brainstorm grid.** Four quadrants of unsourced ambition. Every move answers "what signal says this demand exists?" or it doesn't ship — that single rule converts Ansoff from wall art into an instrument. - **Risk-gradient denial.** A diversification move rated low-risk on enthusiasm. The gradient is the framework's whole teaching: new product *and* new market means both anchors are gone. - **Quadrant stuffing.** Filling diversification because empty feels lazy. An honestly empty quadrant is a finding; a padded one is a liability with a deadline. - **Options without sequence.** A menu with no first move, no funding logic, no breaking assumption. Growth options compound — order is the strategy. - **Sizing by vibe.** Attaching invented market sizes to moves. The do-not-invent list routes sizing to the TAM/SAM/SOM calculator, where the math shows its work. ## References - [`organic-growth-advisor`](../organic-growth-advisor/SKILL.md) (Interactive) — the coaching sibling: diagnoses *which* growth path fits your constraint; this skill evidences the options - [`autonomous-investigation`](../autonomous-investigation/SKILL.md) (Workflow) — the governing protocol - [`intelligence-collection-disciplines`](../intelligence-collection-disciplines/SKILL.md) (Component) — signal sources per quadrant - [`porters-five-forces`](../porters-five-forces/SKILL.md) (Workflow) — the profit-pool read that feeds this analysis - [`tam-sam-som-calculator`](../tam-sam-som-calculator/SKILL.md) (Component) — sizes the moves - [`voice-of-customer-miner`](../voice-of-customer-miner/SKILL.md) (Workflow) — expressed-demand signals for product development - [`opportunity-solution-tree`](../opportunity-solution-tree/SKILL.md) (Interactive) — structures the first move's execution - H. Igor Ansoff, "Strategies for Diversification" (Harvard Business Review, 1957) - Adapted from `market-intelligence/ansoff-matrix-prompt.md` in the `https://github.com/deanpeters/product-manager-prompts` repo.